Horizon Scan on the Benefits of Ocean Seasonal Forecasting in a Future of Increasing Marine Heatwaves for Aotearoa New Zealand

With climate heating, Aotearoa New Zealand is expected to experience more marine heatwaves (MHW) in the coming decades. These extreme events are already impacting island nation's and coastal environments industries at a variety of scales. There will potentially be substantial benefits developing an early warning system–specifically ocean seasonal forecast tools. This near-term 2,030 horizon scan reviews studies supporting development this capability notes work needed enable stakeholders benefit from knowledge. Review findings congregate around six themes; (1) MHW impacts, (2) mechanistic understanding, (3) observational basis, (4) tools, (5) Te Tiriti (The Treaty Waitangi) M?ori aspirations, (6) end-user engagement. The primary recommendation cross-institutional, cross-sector Taskforce that would address, coordinated effective fashion, real, multi-faceted challenges associated with committed pathway warming. A range sub-recommendations follow connect United Nations Ocean Decade initiative.